The following information is taken from the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends report for September 2009, a copyright of the NFIB Research Foundation ISBS #0940791-24-2. This report includes results from a survey of small business owners throughout the US.
Optimism Index: The Index of Small Business Optimism gained 2.1 points in August (7.6 points higher than the survey's second lowest reading reached in March). The gain was primarily a result of improved expectations for future business conditions and real sales volumes.
Labor Markets: The 'job generating machine' is still in reverse. Over the next 3 months, 13% plan to reduce employment (down one point from last month) and 7% plan to create new jobs (down one point).
Capital Spending: Plans to make capital expenditures over the next few months fell 2 points to 16%, revisiting the survey record low reached in 1975 and in March of this year. But, a net 10% expect business conditions to improve over the next 6 months, up 13 points from July.
Profits and Wages: 16% reported profits were higher, but 50% reported profits were falling. Of those owners reporting lower earnings compared to the previous three months, 62% cited weaker sales. The fact that these negative reports persist is bad news for the small business community. Wage pressures are falling as owners not only reduce employment, but also the compensation of remaining workers. But the cost reductions are not enough to firm up profits.
Credit Markets: Overall, loan demand is down due to widespread postponement of investment in inventories and historically low plans for capital spending. 32% reported regular borrowing, down one point from July. Of those borrowers, 30% reported all their borrowing needs net (up 2 points) compared to 7% who reported problems obtaining desired financing (down three points).
Commentary from the Report Writers: It looks like the 3rd quarter will turn out a bit better than we predicted last year...but the fundamentals are still weak. "Cutting" is starting to diminish, but "adding" has not picked up in jobs, inventories or capital spending. The small business sector has taken a real beating. Clawing their way back requires some cooperation from consumers, the source of sales for most small firms, and they are not in a spending mood.
Political leadership has also had a negative impact on attitudes. For years, business owners have expressed a vote of "no confidence" in the economic policies of Congress. From September 2008 through June 2009, leadership has been unconvincing, appeared confused, and unable to act in a way that engendered confidence from the private sector. The Stimulus Package contained very little current stimulus and Congress has continued to pursue major legislative changes that promise to be less than business or consumer friendly.
With all that, the private sector is slowly climbing its way back. We used credit to over-consume, and now we will repay the debt and under-consume for a spell. The attempts by Congress to steam roll the private sector are being repelled by ordinary folk and politicians who have faith in the private sector, not government. This is contributing to an improvement in expectations for economic performance.